A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
